Monday, July 26, 2004


Kerrying The Party To Victory

Lately I've been seeing a lot of interactive electoral maps on the internet. The best one I've found is available through the L.A. Times. Not only does it show the states and how many electoral votes each has to offer, it also shows polling data for each state giving the latest percentages from a variety pollsters. At present time, the polls show that John Kerry has 186 of the necessary 270 electoral votes in his favor with another 209 up for grabs in the swing states.

However, if you examine the poll numbers and assign the electoral votes to the candidate currently leading in each swing state you end up with KERRY - 296 and BUSH - 242.

I have to assume that Kerry's people are aware of this and are planning to capitalize on it at this week's Democratic National Convention. This is a time for Kerry to solidify his base, appeal to the swing voters, and clarify his message. Recent polls show as many as 30% of respondents saying they don't know enough about Kerry. Now is his time to change that.

Two things to keep in mind:
  1. Elections are always a referendum on the incumbent, and
  2. Undecided voters tend to vote for the challenger.

November could be good!

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