Monday, July 19, 2004
Losing Power
President Bush is experiencing a slow and painful political death. Naturally in an election year, Democrats are fighting Bush's proposals in congress; but it now appears as if Republicans aren't cooperating either.
We keep hearing about how much the conservatives love Bush, but where's the love from lawmakers? Maybe they've realized that Bush's agenda is alienating a large portion of the population. Issues such as the Patriot Act and constitutional amendments banning gay marriage are simply too divisive. Supporting these agendas could cost a person their seat in congress.
Bush's greatest appeal is to the far right. He's pandering to the minority of his base. His inability to compromise combined with his inability to admit fault is narrowing his appeal. He's becoming a neo-con despite billing himself as a compassionate conservative. He's pigeon-holing himself. He talks a big game, but the Emperor has no clothes. Moderates are beginning to distance themselves.
How does this play for the November election? I think his low-to-mid forties approval rating tells the story.
- After three years of getting most of the major legislation he wanted through a cooperative Congress, President Bush is coming up almost empty-handed this year as he heads into the homestretch of his reelection campaign.
Capitol Hill has turned into a sinkhole for the unfinished business on Bush's agenda, which includes bills to spur domestic energy production, crack down on lawsuits, extend his 2001 tax cuts and liberalize immigration rules.
Bush and his GOP allies blame the Democrats for the stalemate, as the minority party has become more united and stubborn in its opposition to White House initiatives.
But many issues, such as highway funding and additional tax cuts, have languished not just because of Democratic obstruction but also because of divisions among Republicans — between the House and Senate, moderates and conservatives, and Bush and congressional leaders.
Last week's Senate debate on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage was symptomatic of the many forces conspiring to turn this year into a legislative bust for the White House. Despite Bush's strong push for the amendment — a crowd pleaser for his party's conservative wing — it met with resounding defeat in the face of solid Democratic opposition and a divided Republican Party.
Even in the House, where Republicans are generally more disciplined in following Bush, his agenda is facing challenges. The House this month nearly passed a measure to scale back Bush's signature anti-terrorism law, the Patriot Act. Only an intensive, 11th-hour round of arm-twisting by GOP leaders spared Bush an embarrassing defeat.
We keep hearing about how much the conservatives love Bush, but where's the love from lawmakers? Maybe they've realized that Bush's agenda is alienating a large portion of the population. Issues such as the Patriot Act and constitutional amendments banning gay marriage are simply too divisive. Supporting these agendas could cost a person their seat in congress.
Bush's greatest appeal is to the far right. He's pandering to the minority of his base. His inability to compromise combined with his inability to admit fault is narrowing his appeal. He's becoming a neo-con despite billing himself as a compassionate conservative. He's pigeon-holing himself. He talks a big game, but the Emperor has no clothes. Moderates are beginning to distance themselves.
- ...some Republicans worry that an anemic record this year will be a political problem, because one of their prime arguments for reelecting Bush and GOP majorities in Congress is that a government dominated by one party can get more done than a divided government.
"You can't just point your finger and call Democrats obstructionist," said Rep. Jack Kingston (R-Ga.). "If you have a job to do, you have to do it. People aren't interested in how many storms you encounter at sea. They want to know when you pull into port."
How does this play for the November election? I think his low-to-mid forties approval rating tells the story.