Friday, August 13, 2004


Heading Towards The Line, It's Kerry - Bush!

According to the latest poll numbers from Quinnipiac University, John Kerry has pulled ahead in the Florida polls. With Nader in the race, Kerry, leads Bush by a margin of 47% - 41% with Nader pulling 4%. Without Nader in the race, Kerry leads 49% - 42%.

An article from the Houston Chronicle also shows Kerry leading in Michigan and New Hampshire. This is putting quite a bit of pressure on George Bush. My favorite excerpt from the article is this:

Now I don't want to put too much stock into these polls, but it appears as if the Republicans are moving into panic mode. The personal attacks have increased dramatically. Bush has been mocking Kerry about "new nuances," while Cheney has been ridiculing Kerry for wanting to fight a "sensitive war" (although Majority Report Radio has an interesting post on the sensitive comments), a Republican senator is trying to cast Kerry as a French looking socialist, and on top of all this, you've got the Swiftboat Vet's ad and new book claiming Kerry is "unfit for command." (Did anyone else see Chris Matthews bitch slap John O'Neill on Hardball last night?) In my opinion, it always looks desperate when politicians resort to personal attacks.

With the Republican Convention coming up, I think it's safe to say that these polls could still shift. Public opinion is easily swayed. I expect to hear 9/11 at least a hundred times during the convention itself and there is still the possibility of a "terrorist attack" (October surprise anyone?) to consider. I also half expect to see a major improvement in the hunt for al Qaeda, maybe even a picture of bin Laden in shackles shown during the convention. Nothing is impossible.

But for the time being, things are looking better for John Kerry. I'm encouraged by the numbers and I think it shows that personal attacks don't have the effect they once had.

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