Friday, May 26, 2006
But Is It Enough?
Unless you've been living under a rock, you're aware that Georgieboy's approval numbers are in the tank. According to Gallup, this is due in part to his eroding support among liberal and moderate Republicans.
But what does this mean for the upcoming elections? Is it enough to swing the vote in favor of the Democrats? My heart says "yes," but my mind says "not so fast."
One of the problems with polling is that a poll is only as valid as the questions asked and Gallup is only asking about America's approval of George W. Bush. As much as it pleases me to see Georgieboy's ratings in the shitter the way they are, I know that it's not him we need to defeat. He can't run again. What the Democratic party needs to defeat is Republicanism. So the question is this: does the country's discontentedness with George W. Bush translate to ill feelings toward Republicanism?
To answer that question, I try to put myself in a similar situation. For instance, if I were unhappy with my elected Democratic official, would I ever consider voting for a Republican? I would have to answer no because in my mind a bad Democrat is still better than a Republican. Now that may sound horribly partisan, but consider what the parties stand for. If I have a choice between a bad Democrat that will vote with the Democratic party and a tolerable Republican that will vote with the Republican party... I think my choice is obvious.
So how do we swing the vote in our favor? For quite some time now, I've been saying that we can't rely on converted Republicans to vote for us. Instead, we have to get our votes from the Independents and the new voters. Fortunately, it looks as though we may be making some progress. From the same Gallup poll we find that the Independants are clocking in at a measly 23% approval. This tells me that 77% of the registered Independents could be swayed to vote for a Democrat. Assuming, of course, that we have something to offer them, otherwise they're just as likely to stay home.
So over the next four months, we're going to see what the Democratic party is made of. George W. Bush and his inept, incompetent, corrupt Republican cronies have given us plenty of fodder to work with. Now we have to make some hay.
Have a good weekend, everybody.
- Since the start of his second term, George W. Bush's job approval rating has dropped almost 20 percentage points, including declines among key demographic groups. A Gallup analysis shows that Bush has lost the most support over this period from moderate and liberal Republicans, with most of this change coming in the last several months. Conservative Republicans remain solidly behind Bush, although their level of support for him has declined somewhat from the near-universal support they gave him at the start of his second term.
But what does this mean for the upcoming elections? Is it enough to swing the vote in favor of the Democrats? My heart says "yes," but my mind says "not so fast."
One of the problems with polling is that a poll is only as valid as the questions asked and Gallup is only asking about America's approval of George W. Bush. As much as it pleases me to see Georgieboy's ratings in the shitter the way they are, I know that it's not him we need to defeat. He can't run again. What the Democratic party needs to defeat is Republicanism. So the question is this: does the country's discontentedness with George W. Bush translate to ill feelings toward Republicanism?
To answer that question, I try to put myself in a similar situation. For instance, if I were unhappy with my elected Democratic official, would I ever consider voting for a Republican? I would have to answer no because in my mind a bad Democrat is still better than a Republican. Now that may sound horribly partisan, but consider what the parties stand for. If I have a choice between a bad Democrat that will vote with the Democratic party and a tolerable Republican that will vote with the Republican party... I think my choice is obvious.
So how do we swing the vote in our favor? For quite some time now, I've been saying that we can't rely on converted Republicans to vote for us. Instead, we have to get our votes from the Independents and the new voters. Fortunately, it looks as though we may be making some progress. From the same Gallup poll we find that the Independants are clocking in at a measly 23% approval. This tells me that 77% of the registered Independents could be swayed to vote for a Democrat. Assuming, of course, that we have something to offer them, otherwise they're just as likely to stay home.
So over the next four months, we're going to see what the Democratic party is made of. George W. Bush and his inept, incompetent, corrupt Republican cronies have given us plenty of fodder to work with. Now we have to make some hay.
Have a good weekend, everybody.
