Tuesday, September 26, 2006

 

So About That NIE...

By now, we all know the backstory. NYTimes blah, blah, blah... Playing politics blah, blah, blah... Whatever! Let's just get right to it, because at the end of all this, the song is going to remain the same: Bush Lied.

From the NIE Key Judgments released today, I'd like to focus on three statements. The NIE addresses them in the following order.

First:
  • Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.


Second:
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
  • The Iraq conflict has become the "cause celebre" for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves, and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry on the fight.

Third:
We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
  • Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement: (1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness; (2) the Iraq "jihad;" (3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and (4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims - all of which jihadists exploit.

Now, if we look at them in reverse order we'll see what they're actually saying.

From the third statement:
We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.
  • ...underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:... (2) the Iraq "jihad;"


Translation - The Iraq war is providing more fuel for the movement than we are currently able to diffuse.

From the second statement:
We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.
  • The Iraq conflict has become the "cause celebre" for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement.

Translation - The Iraq conflict has become the rallying cause for terrorists around the world.

From the first statement:
Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.


Translation - The number of terrorists is growing.

So let's recap -

Put that all together and what do you have? We are less safe today because of our actions in Iraq. And since this report was prepared in April 2006, that means that George W. Bush knew about it when he made his statement from the oval office on the fifth anniversary of September 11 when he stated:

The world is safer because Saddam Hussein is no longer in power.

Final conclusion: George W. Bush knowingly lied to the American people from the oval office on the fifth anniversary of the most tragic day in our nation's history.

Case closed.



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